Understanding Probability

   Do you know what the word probability means? If not, how about the word chance? If you know what chance means, then you have a good idea what probability is. This lesson will provide an introduction and activities centered around this concept.

Objectives

    Let's take a chance and see if we can achieve these goals about probability:

Resources

    These websites will provide a description of the topic and will illustrate the fun of discovering probabilities through various activities and games.

What is Probability? -- A brief introduction to probability and its use

A Chance of Rain --  See how probability is used in an everyday weather report

Odds of an Earthquake-- Explore some predictions of earthquakes made by experts and then you give it a try.

Explore the Three Doors-- A fun game where you have to use what you know of probability

Find the Queens -- See how many chances it takes you to solve this problem

Cut the Cards-- Discover the probabilities of getting and Ace, Deuce, or neither.

Words to Know -- Common definitions and terms used when talking about probability.

Garden Fresh -- Real life problems involving a gardener's probability

How are we going to learn this?

    Step 1: Introduce the concept of chance with an application using coins
    Step 2: Find the definition of probability
    Step 3: See if there are any real-life applications where probability is used
    Step 4: Go to the weatherperson resource and take a chance at the
               questions that are posed
     Step 5: Work with a group in the three interactive games
    Step 6: Find the entire class probability of success in the interactive games

Learning Advice

    As you are looking at the applications of probability, make sure to keep an accurate chart of the activities you are performing. Check your results of experiments with your classmates. Will the percentages always be equal? Will they ever be close to being equal? The best way to understand probability is to know that your answers and percentages will always differ.

Conclusion

    Hopefully, you now have an understanding of the concepts and applications of probability. What you will come to realize is that probability is used in many settings of everyday life. As you are going about your daily routine, remember that there is probability in anything you do.
 

This page written by Jim Carter and Donna Taylor. Last updated December 5, 1998.